Mechanical demand in March is now picking up

Due to the seasonal effect, after a simple seasonal adjustment, the economy continued to pick up momentum in January and February. However, from the perspective of end-user demand for industrial consumables, the recovery is not obvious. This year's peak season is relatively late compared to previous years, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The market demand does not reach the expectations of terminal manufacturers and distributors.

Due to the new guidelines for the macroeconomic direction caused by the convening of the two conferences, the process of real estate investment recovery has been disrupted. Under the background of real estate regulation and control, this means that the rise in infrastructure investment will make up for the decline in real estate investment, and the increase in infrastructure investment will surely increase. . In terms of money supply, the report puts forward that “keeping reasonable growth in money and credit and appropriately expanding the scale of social financing” indicates that under the environment of limited credit growth, other financing methods are still supported by policies, which can protect the source of investment funds.

For the machinery industry, under the condition of excess industrial capacity, the mild economic and investment recovery will also cause the recovery of the machinery industry's economy to be moderate. Infrastructure demand for downstream machinery products is promising. In the short term, due to the fine-tuning of monetary policy and the introduction of real estate control policies, the terminal market has a wait-and-see atmosphere. In March, the sales of mechanical products in the peak season have less than expected risks, but in the medium term, the demand for the machinery industry will continue to rise moderately.

Recalling the performance of the machinery industry in February, according to the arithmetic average algorithm and the tradable equity weighted average algorithm, they outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 4.9 and 3.87 percentage points, respectively. In terms of performance in the February sub-industry, due to the influence of market investment styles, other special equipment and instrumentation industries with small market capitalizations were leading the gains. Due to increased risk appetite, the shipbuilding and aerospace industries also achieved better returns.

In the short term, due to the fine-tuning of monetary policy and the introduction of real estate control policies, the terminal market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the industry will find it difficult to obtain relative earnings in the short term. However, because the valuation of the industry is not high, the downward space is also limited. In the medium term, the economy is still in a recovery channel. In the future, the demand for the machinery industry will continue to rise moderately. However, the modest recovery will lead to limited room for improvement in the valuation of the machinery industry. For industries and individual stocks, we can pay attention to investment opportunities in downstream machinery products such as roads and railways, as well as the short-term trading opportunities brought by the reform of the Ministry of Railways to railway equipment companies. This month, the rating of the machinery industry, sub-sectors and individual stocks remained unchanged.