Recently, at the "2014 Intelligent Processing and Advanced Cutting Technology Exchange Conference" jointly organized by Kenner Metals and Metal Processing Magazine, Hao Ming, Chairman of the China Tool Association, talked about some thoughts on the future development of the machine tool industry.
He said that since 2012, due to the comprehensive factors such as the rebalancing of the global economy and the slowdown of China's economic growth, China's machine tool industry has undergone fundamental changes. The industry is facing and undergoing a severe test of adjustment and transformation, and is also full of A variety of potential growth opportunities.
From the perspective of the operation of China's machinery manufacturing industry in 2013, the industry closely related to informatization, automation, and intelligent transformation and upgrading is developing faster than the traditional manufacturing industry. In 2013, the machine tool industry was in a low-level operation state; the capacity utilization rate was low, the market scale was shrinking overall; the market competition was fierce, and the profit rate continued to decline; the machine tool export did not see a significant improvement, and the long-term growth of imports also fell sharply.
In 2013, the import of metal processing machine tools was 73,733 units, which was US$10.15 billion. The amount decreased by 25.37% year-on-year, and the average import price was US$135,800. Among them, the processing center imported 20,741 units, 3.382 billion US dollars, the amount decreased by 40.14%; CNC machine tools imported 15,937 units, 4.169 billion US dollars, the amount decreased by 11.71%.
The data fully shows that the Chinese machine tool market is undergoing very significant changes. The outstanding features are: the total demand has decreased, the demand structure has risen, and imported machine tools have tended to be high-end products.
He believes that from a macro perspective, the recent Central Economic Work Conference has clearly conveyed a policy signal calling for “stable progressâ€, so the national economy is expected to maintain steady development in 2014; while emerging economies in the international economic environment Relatively difficult, but developed countries are slowly recovering. Overall, in 2014, the machinery industry could continue to maintain steady growth while the structure was adjusted.
Affected by the big environment, after the output of machine tool mainframes dropped sharply in the previous year, in general, the machine tool mainframe enterprises are still in the decline channel in 2014, or they will face problems such as overcapacity, insufficient orders, excessive competition, and price decline. The performance of low-end machines and heavy-duty machine tools is more prominent.
The use of modern and efficient tools needs to be promoted. According to statistics, the annual tool consumption in developed countries is about 50% of machine tool consumption. It is much higher than the proportion of tool consumption in China's manufacturing industry. From a global perspective, in 2008, machine tool consumption reached 85 billion US dollars, while tool consumption also reached a new high of 21 billion US dollars. The global average of tool consumption and machine tool consumption is about 25%. In China, machine tool consumption It has ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years and reached a record level of US$19.44 billion in 2008. For the first time, China's tool consumption has surpassed that of major developed countries, reaching US$4 billion. However, compared with the huge scale of machine tool consumption in China's manufacturing industry, the level of tool consumption is still very low, only 20% of machine tool consumption. This proportion is not only far lower than that of developed countries, but also lower than the world average. This shows that in China's tool consumption, cheap and inefficient traditional tools still dominate, machine tool functions are far from being fully utilized, and the potential for manufacturing to increase labor productivity is huge. This is not only the gap between China's tool industry, but also the use of China's tool industry.
From the enterprise level, after more than two years of market testing, many companies have gradually responded to changes in the market, gradually shifting to actively adapt to changes, proactively positioning the product market, and looking for market opportunities based on their own characteristics. In the current situation, industry companies must completely abandon their expectations of the government to further launch a strong economic stimulus plan, and give up the desire for a strong rebound in demand in the low-end market. These expectations and cravings are unrealistic and must be self-adjusted.
Comprehensive and deepening reforms and innovations will inevitably lead to more potential development opportunities. For example, the phenomenon of “machine substitution†that is emerging in various places is giving the machine tool industry an unprecedentedly favorable upgrade market. The core of “machine substitution†is to upgrade the backward manufacturing method to a more efficient, environmentally friendly, more reliable and more profitable manufacturing method, which is beneficial to improve the income and quality of life of workers. The trend is unstoppable. The machine tool industry should seize this opportunity.
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