In the first five months of this year, although the sales volume of the domestic auto market is increasing, the auto manufacturers may not be happy because the economic benefits have not improved. On the one hand, the auto market continues to prosper; on the other hand, the overall profit declines. The prediction that the Chinese automobile industry does not increase its production has become a success.
Car company profits continue to decline
In early June, while the major car makers and media in the country were rejoicing again for the beautiful greetings delivered by the auto market in May, the release of another set of data reveals the hidden concerns of the auto market.
According to statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, 19 key automobile companies (groups) in the first 4 months, operating income increased by -10.74% year-on-year, profit increased by -27.99% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by -6.46% year-on-year; 19 key automakers Among them, only eight companies had higher operating income than the same period of the previous year, of which two operating revenues were positive; 11 were lower than the same period of last year.
Among the 19 auto companies, only 5 companies achieved profit growth, 10 companies realized negative growth in profits (of which 7 have slowed down), and 4 companies suffered losses. It is difficult to increase production, but it has become an embarrassing fact in front of car companies.
Looking further ahead, in early May, the 2008 annual report of the domestic automobile listed companies all surfaced, and the almost-all-anniversed chart of net profit plummeted clearly shows the survival status of Chinese car companies in the past year. The 2009 first-quarter performance report released with it shows that the downward trend in profits continues.
In the first quarter, the total profit of major indicators of China's auto and auto parts listed companies decreased by 54.19% year-on-year, and industry net profit fell by 53.59% year-on-year. Among the 62 key listed companies’ net profits of listed companies of automobiles and auto parts, there are still 19 companies that have suffered losses, with a loss of 31.15%, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 times; FAW Xiali, Jinbei Auto, Ankai Auto and other companies are at a loss. Enterprise ranks. This coincides with the information released earlier by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that "despite the rebound in auto production and sales, the profits of the auto industry will continue to drop," confirming the fact that the industry "increases revenue but does not increase profits."
This year, although China’s automobile production and sales began to pick up and the situation is gratifying, the car’s production and sales enthusiasm and the overall profit of auto companies have fallen into sharp contrasts, and companies that have maintained growth in automobile production and sales have also been unable to escape the decline in overall profitability. This is reflected in another aspect. The impact of the global financial crisis on domestic auto companies is relatively straightforward, indicating that corporate profitability is not strong.
Uneven hot and cold models
If the factors such as rising costs and sluggish markets are the main reasons for the decline in the profits of auto makers in 2008, the reason for the decline in the profits of auto makers in the first five months of this year is the uneven distribution of auto sales in the auto market. The policy-stimulated car sold well, but the lucrative car did not have the help of policy. The deeper reason is that the product structure of auto enterprises is irrational. Profits are heavily dependent on large-displacement, mid-to-high-class vehicles, and even a slight decline in such models will seriously affect the overall profit of the company.
Since the beginning of this year, the production and sales volume of automobiles have increased significantly, but they are structural, seasonal, regional, and recovery growth, and are mainly due to the faster growth of crossover passenger cars (micro-passengers) and 1.6-liter or lower-displacement economy cars. To. In the first five months, crossover passenger cars produced and sold 75.10 million vehicles and 77.53 million vehicles, an increase of 50.00% and 50.78% year-on-year. Sales volume of cars of 1.6L or less reached 1.818 million vehicles, an increase of over 35% year-on-year. This is also the main force of China's auto market in January-May this year, pulling the "big market" rise. However, although small-displacement cars and minibuses accounted for more than 70% of the sales in the automotive industry, their revenues accounted for less than 50%. Due to the generally weak profitability of small-displacement vehicles, which is usually only around 10%, the profit of the industry is low-end models that benefit from the two policies of halving the purchase tax of 1.6L and below passenger cars and the automobile to the countryside. The proportion is estimated to be less than 30%. As a result, the profitability of the auto industry has not been able to increase simultaneously. Many manufacturers have even encountered the dilemma of increasing production and reducing income.
What is alarming is that the decline in sales volume is precisely those segmented markets with lucrative auto companies. The large-displacement cars and MPVs in the company include the entire commercial vehicle market, and the overall performance is not satisfactory. Taking the 2.5-3.0 litre displacement car as an example, in May, the overall sales volume of models in this market decreased by 18.0% from April, and decreased by 7.25% compared with the same period of last year. The same is true for the commercial vehicle market. In the first five months of this year, the largest decline in the commercial vehicle segment fell by 63.05%. Therefore, manufacturers have a good "first half" in "quantity", but they are unsuccessful in "quality". The structural contradictions in China’s auto market led to the seemingly buoyant Chinese auto market to a large extent, “Wang Ding is not a good fortuneâ€. In addition, the heavy losses in automobile exports are also one of the important reasons for the sharp drop in the income of the automotive industry.
When to get out of the spell
In the face of the financial tsunami, when China’s autos, which are still in a period of growth, have gone out of the curse of “increasing production without increasing incomeâ€, there are two opposing views in the industry:
One view is that the decline in profits in the first five months of this year is a continuation of the decline in profitability of China's auto companies in 2008, which will affect the earnings of auto companies this year. The profitability prospects of auto companies are not optimistic.
Although the national automobile production and sales rebounded in the first five months of this year, it still caused the root cause of the “mass without benefit†of car companies. The profitability of large-displacement vehicles is much higher than that of small-displacement vehicles. The development of large-displacement vehicles is now subject to certain restrictions. If the relevant companies cut prices and promotions, they will further oppress the profitability of small-displacement vehicles, and they will also There is a situation in which the profit cannot be increased simultaneously with production and sales. Therefore, the great difference between capital-for-profit and government social responsibility is reflected. In addition, policy factors are the main driving force for the growth of automobile production and sales this year. This also means that once the country's favorable policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand to drive the auto market are lacking in continuity, or as policy strengths gradually weaken over time, the increase in the auto market will lose momentum.
Another view is that the production and sales of vehicles that benefit from the vehicle purchase tax policy, which account for 52% of the total car sales, will continue to grow, the signs of recovery in mid- to high-end cars will also show signs of recovery, the decline in commercial vehicles will further decrease, and the overall situation in the auto industry will already pick up. .
From the quarterly quarterly analysis of the first quarter, due to the recovery in sales, the monetary capital has increased by 20.02% year-on-year, the various receivables have dropped by 16.1% year-on-year, inventory has increased slightly by 0.06% year-on-year, and each item has increased by 7.94% year-on-year. Advance receipts increased by 9.31% year-on-year. Combined with indicators such as inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and operating cash flow, the overall operating pressure of auto makers has somewhat weakened. From January to April, although the major economic indicators of the 19 auto companies have negative growth compared with the same period of last year, the decline rate has significantly decreased and the decline rate has decreased by 20 percentage points. The phenomenon of “Wang Ding is not busy†is being reversed and the economic benefits have rebounded.
The first phase of China's automotive industry monitoring results also showed that the industry's economy began to show signs of recovery, the automotive industry prosperity index to reflect the automotive industry's economy is 98.4, the auto companies may return to the road of profitability; April and May stock market The automotive sector has outperformed the broader market, with an average EPS of 0.0754 yuan per vehicle, which is far higher than the poor performance of 0.0821 yuan in the fourth quarter of last year. Therefore, the first five months of this year may be the lowest point of the profit margin, and there are reasons to believe that as the auto market continues to sell hot, the illusion that the auto companies encounter the “prosperous growth†is bound to disappear.
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