What should happen to the tire market in 2015?

Recently, many people are discussing the trend of the tire market in 2015 and the development trend of tire dealers. Today, we will analyze the prices, products, electricity suppliers, and manufacturers. The city is artificial and hopes to help you heroes. In 2015, the tire market made predictions and grasps, instead of waiting for the market to decide the future development!

Tire prices: Tire prices continue to bottom, and it is difficult to say reverse in the first half of 2015.

1. Supply exceeds demand is the main driving force for downward prices. After more than 10 years of rapid development, especially in the past two years after the investment blowout, China's tires, whether passenger cars or heavy truck tires, have suffered more serious structural excesses, that is, surplus of medium- and low-grade homogenized tires, and there are still gaps in high-end and green tires. . Stocks are generally produced in 1.5 to 2 months. The operating rate of tire companies continued to drop and fell to the low level during the year. China's tire concentration is relatively low, the low operating rate and high inventory are easy for companies to let the market keep prices down and push down each other, leading to a downward focus on prices.

2. There is still some room for price drop. The price of natural rubber dropped from nearly 36,000 yuan/ton in May 2011 to nearly 13,000 yuan/ton now, a drop of up to 63.9%. At the same time, tire prices also showed a downward trend, car tire price index fell 25.5%, truck tire price index fell 30.98% 0 natural rubber accounted for nearly 50% of total tire costs, from the tire cost composition analysis, China's car tire prices are still about 5% Falling space, truck tires have a relatively small space for decline, about 1% to 2%. This is also the main reason that the recent decline in the price of car tires is significantly greater than that of truck tires.

3. The price decline will continue for some time. The transfer of rubber and other raw material costs to the downstream tire industry has a certain time difference. From the traditional experience, this time difference is more than six months. Now the rubber continues to bottom out, at most in the bottom area, and rubber prices have yet to show signs of reversing. According to empirical calculations, it takes more than six months for China’s tire prices to stabilize or increase. Although with the arrival of the traditional Spring Festival, traffic and transportation peaked, the demand for tires increased, and the decrease in tire prices would decrease, but the decline was still the main tone.

In summary, the general trend of the price of domestic tires in China is expected to decline by 5% to 10%, depending on the United States' dual-use case of the tires. The price of truck tires will continue to decline slightly, at a rate of around 2%, which is already close to the bottom. Tire prices are reversed and optimism is expected to occur in the second half of next year.

Tire Products: Tire New Products are continuously introduced, and technology added value becomes the main competitiveness of products

According to the release of this year's major exhibitions and tire companies, tire companies in 2015 will gradually launch new tires for market segments. Michelin's self-repairing tires, for example, have also been confirmed to land on the market in 2015, and Michelin Tweel's pneumatic tires are in volume production. In addition to airless tires, Bridgestone also introduced narrow tire technology, which is a technology that runs counter to airless. According to the efforts made by domestic tire companies in the research and development in 2014, domestic tire companies will also compete fiercely with foreign tire companies in the original and replacement markets in 2015, such as Fengshen tires, exquisite tires, and double-gun tires. Although there is still a gap between domestic tire product technology and foreign companies, in view of its development process, domestic tire companies can achieve greater progress in 2015.

Tire e-commerce: E-commerce is still hot, online solutions to solve price problems

Tire e-commerce fever will continue to rise in 2015. However, due to fewer online tires and problems in installation and service, the cooperation model for active online joint manufacturers and offline installation sites will be positive in 2015. Carry out. However, the problem that comes with it is that more and more tires merchants have entered the e-commerce platform, and the price war in the e-commerce field will become even fiercer. Whether it is e-commerce, manufacturers or distributors, the seamless integration of online and offline integration will be the direction in which it will need to work hard in 2015.

Tire Dealers: Reduced Product Advantages and Services Become Key to Success

Profitability is the top priority, and dealers who traded tires in 2015 should stop.

In 2015, the tire dealers will be closer to the manufacturers, but due to lower tire prices and increasing competitive pressure, dealers will earn less and less profit from tire products alone. Secondly, due to the development of tire electricity providers, online and offline cooperation and win-win model will become a good choice for dealers and retailers. Third, as the profit brought by tire products to dealers is reduced and the potential of the automotive aftermarket is continuously expanding, adding service content and enriching product categories will become the trend for the future development of tire dealers and retailers. Fourth, tire dealers need to increase their influence in the channel through media and social interaction platforms.

Tire manufacturers: survival of the fittest, manufacturers will eat big fish

At present, the tire factory can be roughly divided into three levels; the first echelon is controlled by international giants such as Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear, and the second echelon is an internationally competitive brand such as Gitton and Toyo. , Hankook, etc. The third echelon is a relatively domestic factory with some history such as Fengshen, Taikaiying, Double Money and other factories; the other fourth echelon is the manufacturer of some rising stars, especially the factory workshop represented by Shandong Dongying. .

In terms of market trends, the phenomenon of big fish in the tire industry is inevitable. Usually there may be several forms: mergers and acquisitions (who can't say who will buy, it will disappear); some factories are foundries (similar to OEM); some even become wholesalers' foundries; mutual holdings ( For instance, Jinyu and Shengtai exchange their shares, etc.)

The overall trend of the tire industry in 2015 and in the future

Tire marketing in 2015 will shift from high prices and high gross margins to low-cost and high-occupancy; many traditional channels and businesses will disappear due to future changes; integration of production and finance, integration of business and trade, and service marketing will be the main ways of profitability. Some experts predict that the channel level of big brands will be further reduced, and the value of retailers will be further enhanced because of the strong appeal of the brand among consumers and the support of distribution and installation services by numerous brand dealers nationwide. The vendor-led e-commerce platform will develop faster. At the same time, the type of tire trading service platform will also have great opportunities for development. Because there are many brands of Chinese tire manufacturers, weak brands can only survive and develop by shortening channel links substantially. At the same time, this also provides opportunities for the intermediary platform.