The “Long Run Forecast†released by the China Center for Economic Research of Peking University on the 25th shows that the market’s interest rate hike is expected to be strong. Nearly half of the 23 research institutes at home and abroad believe that the second quarter is the node for interest rate hikes, including Peking University’s Center for Economic Research, Guotai Junan, and HSBC. Nine institutions, including banks, believe that the benchmark interest rate will be raised in the second quarter. Ma Xiaohe, deputy dean of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out at the China and World Economic Forum of Tsinghua University held recently that how to prevent inflation from being transferred from mild to moderate is an important issue currently faced. The report released at the forum predicts that the GDP growth rate this year will be 10.9%, saying that if the current policy does not make major adjustments, the economic operation will appear hot.
The "Long Run Forecast" is derived from the weighted average of the forecast of major economic indicators by 23 domestic and foreign research institutions. "Long Run Forecast" said that the economy will continue to operate at a high level. It is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter of this year will be 10.5% year-on-year, and CPI will increase by 3.1%. Professor Feng Lu of the National Institute of Development Studies of Peking University said that the overall economic situation in the second quarter was: “The economy is operating at a high level, the inflationary pressure is significant, the trade surplus is decreasing, and the two rates are expected to be fine-tuned.â€
Ma Xiaohe pointed out that the current risks of economic operations are still relatively high. First, industrial restructuring is needed. After the financial crisis, China’s industrial structure has been severely unadapted to the new world demand situation, facing overcapacity, high energy consumption, and high Put into the production of structural changes. The second is how consumption exceeds the contribution of investment to economic growth. At present, consumption has lagged behind investment despite its rapid growth. "Inflation expectations are currently an important issue," Ma Xiaohe said. Since last year, China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy. Currency issuance surpasses economic growth. He said that how to prevent a severe shift from mild to moderate inflation is a problem that needs to be faced. Regarding the direction of macroeconomic policies, Ma Xiaohe said: "If inflation continues to go upwards, the macro policy, especially monetary policy, will speed up toward neutrality."
The China and World Economic Research Center (CCWE) of Tsinghua University believes that after the GDP growth rate reaches a high of 11.9% in the first quarter of this year, GDP growth will be relatively flat in the last three quarters, but it is still at a high level in these two years. The annual growth rate is expected to be 10.9%. This year's export growth is expected to be 32%, and the import increase is expected to be as high as 43.9%. These three indicators support the possibility of hot economic operation. CCWE said that the rising trend of the urban consumer price index (CPI) is significant and is expected to be 3.7% for the whole year.
The "Long Run Forecast" is derived from the weighted average of the forecast of major economic indicators by 23 domestic and foreign research institutions. "Long Run Forecast" said that the economy will continue to operate at a high level. It is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter of this year will be 10.5% year-on-year, and CPI will increase by 3.1%. Professor Feng Lu of the National Institute of Development Studies of Peking University said that the overall economic situation in the second quarter was: “The economy is operating at a high level, the inflationary pressure is significant, the trade surplus is decreasing, and the two rates are expected to be fine-tuned.â€
Ma Xiaohe pointed out that the current risks of economic operations are still relatively high. First, industrial restructuring is needed. After the financial crisis, China’s industrial structure has been severely unadapted to the new world demand situation, facing overcapacity, high energy consumption, and high Put into the production of structural changes. The second is how consumption exceeds the contribution of investment to economic growth. At present, consumption has lagged behind investment despite its rapid growth. "Inflation expectations are currently an important issue," Ma Xiaohe said. Since last year, China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy. Currency issuance surpasses economic growth. He said that how to prevent a severe shift from mild to moderate inflation is a problem that needs to be faced. Regarding the direction of macroeconomic policies, Ma Xiaohe said: "If inflation continues to go upwards, the macro policy, especially monetary policy, will speed up toward neutrality."
The China and World Economic Research Center (CCWE) of Tsinghua University believes that after the GDP growth rate reaches a high of 11.9% in the first quarter of this year, GDP growth will be relatively flat in the last three quarters, but it is still at a high level in these two years. The annual growth rate is expected to be 10.9%. This year's export growth is expected to be 32%, and the import increase is expected to be as high as 43.9%. These three indicators support the possibility of hot economic operation. CCWE said that the rising trend of the urban consumer price index (CPI) is significant and is expected to be 3.7% for the whole year.
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