Is growth still shrinking? Perspective of the new normal lubricant industry

As China's economy has entered the "new normal," the development of the lubricants industry has also come to a crossroads, high-end development has become the trend of the times, and the market has ushered in a series of changes. Relevant predictions believe that the growth rate of China's GDP in the next five years will be about 5%, which is significantly lower than the double-digit growth between 2003 and 2011. However, the economic slowdown cannot obstruct the government’s determination to promote the transformation and upgrading of automobiles and other industrial sectors through laws and regulations. The replacement of existing obsolete equipment with modern equipment that is more efficient and durable has become one of the important means of “adjusting structure and ensuring growth”. At present, various industrial sectors are taking a series of measures to upgrade the modernization of equipment and teams, including the search for better lubrication products and lubrication solutions to better meet the requirements of the era of high-end development of the industry.

Specific to the automotive industry, rising sales have won enough space for innovation and development in the industry. Statistics show that in 2016 China's passenger vehicle sales exceeded 24 million vehicles, an increase of about 15% over the previous year, and the gap between more than 10 million vehicles is far ahead of the traditional car-consuming country, the United States. A growing middle class, a rapidly urbanizing western region, and long-term government-led stimulus policies all contribute to the increase in car ownership. In particular, the middle class, whose own wealth has continued to accumulate, has several times broken the predictions of “low growth” and “growth pause” from the government, manufacturers, consulting agencies, and even market first-line dealers. Since 2006, it has continuously promoted car sales growth. Clearly, an active trading car market has a positive direct impact on the lubricant market. To cater to this trend, China's automotive lubricant market will focus on producing products with higher fuel economy and stricter emission standards.

It is also worth noting that the development of the lubricant industry will inevitably change the existing “bigger but not more, not more” market structure, and backward production capacity will be eliminated in the era of change. Industry sources estimate that market demand will shrink to 6.9 million tons by 2020, with a total market value of approximately US$26 billion. In terms of quantity, industrial lubricants dominate, with a market share of close to 50%; in terms of currency value, the dominant consumer goods sector. It is predicted that the demand for lubricants in the consumer sector will be about 3.9 million tons, of which, the overall engine lubricants will account for about 70%, and this trend will continue until 2020.

Engine oil accounts for about 70% of the overall

At the enterprise level, it can be foreseen that large local companies will focus on competitive mid-to-high end products in the future, imitate transnational industry giants, and establish one-on-one personalized sales strategies and project management solutions for specific customers, while the low-end market The gap will be made up by a large number of small businesses. As a result, on the one hand, the turmoil in the low-end market will intensify, and the industry will shuffle even more fiercely; on the other hand, it will leave potential development space for powerful small businesses. How to stand out in a fiercely competitive market and continue to enter the mid-to-high end through a series of innovative measures is a questionnaire that tests the entire industry in the new situation.

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