According to a report released by the US market research firm Lux Research on the 20th, autonomous vehicles will create a market worth $87 billion in 2030. Relevant software developers will become the biggest winners, and the Chinese market will catch up with Europe and the United States.
This report divides the car into five grades according to the degree of autopilot technology included: zero-level zero-tech content, one-level anti-lock braking system, electronic stability system, etc.; second-level adaptive cruise control system, lane departure Warning system, anti-collision brake system, etc.; three levels with high-definition navigation map; four levels with 100% automation.
According to the report, by 2030, secondary vehicles with simple autonomous driving capabilities will become mainstream, accounting for 92% of autonomous vehicles. The driverless cars that Google and the German company Mercedes-Benz have launched are classified as three-stage, that is, they are more self-driving but still need drivers to sit in the car. This part of the car will only account for 8% of the market.
According to the report, without a driver and a steering wheel, accelerator pedal and brake pedal, a four-stage car that is truly fully autonomous is unlikely to be on the road until 2030.
The report says that the value chain of automated vehicles has begun to take shape. This emerging industry involves multiple production sectors, including automotive manufacturing, including laser radar, optical cameras, circuits, computer hardware, software, maps, connectivity and applications. In 2030, the software industry will account for the largest portion of the autonomous vehicle market, valued at approximately $25 billion. Software will be a key factor in the competitiveness of automakers.
The report also predicts that although autonomous vehicles start in Europe and the United States, China's development will come later. It is estimated that about 120 million self-driving cars will be sold worldwide in 2030, with China accounting for 35% and operating income of US$24 billion. In contrast, auto-driving cars in the US and Europe have revenues of about $21 billion and $20 billion.
However, the report also acknowledges that the commercialization of autonomous vehicles is still unclear due to factors such as timing, price, and business model. Whether automakers can technically develop autonomous vehicles for the mass market is also a problem. For example, redrawing high-definition maps of roads around the world for navigation is a challenge, and it is more difficult to update these maps in a timely manner, and it is almost impossible to ensure that the map is 100% accurate. (
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