First, the subsidy driving force is weakened, and the license and point trading system will exert force.
Consumers, purchase subsidies and new energy licenses remain important drivers. 1) After the subsidy standard was specified in September 2013, the output of new energy vehicles increased from 33,000 in 2013 to 101,000 in 2014. It is believed that although the subsidy policy after adjustment has a certain degree of decline and technical requirements are more stringent, it is still an important factor driving the development of the industry. 2) At the same time, in the car-restricted city, the new energy license is driven significantly. Shenzhen has promoted more than 2,000 new energy vehicles in 2013-2014. After the purchase restriction at the end of 2014, in 2015, Shenzhen promoted 35,000 new energy vehicles.
New energy vehicle production (10,000 units)
Significant driving force for new energy licenses
New energy vehicle subsidy standard (ten thousand yuan)
The point trading system is exerted from the supply side. The carbon emission quota management consultation draft released in August 2016 draws on California's ZEV policy and is expected to be launched nationwide in 2017. It will manage automobile carbon emissions in combination with China's existing carbon emission trading management policy. . Although there are still some details that need to be perfected and concerns about the difficulty of implementation, on the other hand, it indicates that the country's promotion of the new energy automobile industry will shift from financial subsidies to production, which is equivalent to setting the lower limit of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
California ZEV Policy Implementation Steps
California, US new energy vehicle penetration rate
Second, it is estimated that the sales volume will be 750,000 in 2017, and the growth of the passenger cars and logistics vehicles will be strong.
In 2016, industry demand was suppressed, and commercial vehicles were the focus of rectification. Commercial vehicles such as buses and special vehicles are the hardest hit areas, and they are also the key areas for rectification in 2016. In the first three batches of 2016 the introduction of new energy vehicles subsidies directory type, no special vehicle models, the first batch of 4,5 directory by the end of 2016 before landing, private car demand was severely inhibited. In addition, in the latest subsidy program, the subsidy mode of passenger cars was changed to electricity subsidies and caps, and the slope rate exceeded 40%, which was larger than that of passenger cars.
New energy vehicle production (vehicle)
New energy vehicle production structure
Passenger cars are less affected by subsidies and growth will accelerate. In the newly introduced new energy subsidy adjustment policy, only the technical requirements for the energy density of the passenger car battery system were added, and the upper limit of the local subsidy was set, and the subsidy standard was not adjusted. In addition, the driving role of the license plate will continue. Since the new energy vehicles produced in 2016-2017 can deduct the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credit system implemented in 2018, passenger car manufacturers will also launch a large number of new energy vehicles in 2017.
New energy passenger car subsidy standard (2015-2018)
The point trading system forces automobile manufacturers to increase the supply of new energy vehicles in a short period of time. Plug-in hybrids are more acceptable to consumers because of the lack of cruising range and the advantages of both fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. Affected by financial subsidies, PHEVs in China's new energy vehicles are relatively low compared to other countries. With the gradual decline of financial subsidies and the implementation of the point trading system, plug-in electric vehicles will usher in development.
New energy passenger car subsidy standard (10,000 yuan / vehicle)
The actual integral value of new energy vehicles in China's point trading system
PHEV ratio in new energy vehicle ownership in 2015
US, California pure, mixed new energy vehicle penetration rate
The growth rate of passenger cars is slowing down, and the growth momentum of logistics vehicles is strong. Due to the small scale of subsidies and the low mileage and endurance requirements of logistics vehicles, the demand for suppression in 2016 is expected to break out in 2017. The passenger car is sensitive to price, the subsidy has a large decline and the technical requirements are improved. It is expected that the passenger car growth rate will slow down in 2017.
New Energy Bus 2017 Subsidy Standard
It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 750,000 in 2017. Passenger cars are expected to accelerate their growth due to the small subsidies and the promotion of the licenses in the restricted purchase area and the incentives for the point trading system implemented in 2018. Passenger cars are expected to slow down due to the large extent of the slope and the increasing technical difficulty. Due to the suppression of demand for logistics vehicles in 2016, the subsidy policy will release this part of the demand and is expected to grow rapidly.
2017 new energy vehicle sales forecast (10,000 units)
Third, battery overcapacity, policy risks, optimistic about wet diaphragm, electrolyte
Power battery overcapacity and policy risks. According to statistics, the current production capacity of power batteries at the end of 2016 is 42.7GWH, and it is expected that the production capacity will reach 84GWH by 2017. Far more than the estimated demand for the 35GWH power battery in 2017, the production capacity is very sufficient. However, in November 2016, the "Guidelines for the Standardization of Automotive Power Battery Industry" draft, the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells increased to 8 billion watt-hours (8GWH), 39 times higher than in 2015. . Industry policy risks are high.
China's power battery demand forecast
Diaphragm: Domestic technology advancement and wet diaphragm ratio will increase significantly. The growth of ternary batteries will drive the growth of wet diaphragm sales.
Electrolyte: The cost will decrease, and the proportion of ternary dynamic electrolyte will increase. The main raw materials of the electrolyte (about 40% of the cost) will increase the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2017. The price will decrease and the electrolyte cost will decrease.
Cathode material: new capacity release and industry competition intensified. In 2016, a number of companies will expand their production capacity on a large scale, and new capacity will be released in 2017. Industry competition will intensify and the overall profitability of the industry will decline.
Anode material: Entering capacity elimination period, profitability declines. The concentration of the industry has increased, the industry has become more differentiated, and it has entered the low-end repetitive capacity elimination period.
Ex-factory price of lithium carbonate (Borui Lithium, yuan / ton)
Lithium battery separator production forecast for 2014-2020 (100 million square meters)
Fourth, the investment rhythm: the second quarter monthly sales, local subsidy policy introduced
2017 Q2 sales and land subsidy policies were introduced. From the sales structure of new energy vehicles in previous years, sales volume has shown a trend of low and high, and the monthly sales in the second quarter can be used as an important indicator for observing annual sales. In addition, local new energy vehicle subsidy policy.
New energy passenger car monthly sales (vehicle)
2017 trend investment continuation
First, the subsidy driving force is weakened, and the license and point trading system will exert force.
Consumers, purchase subsidies and new energy licenses remain important drivers. 1) After the subsidy standard was specified in September 2013, the output of new energy vehicles increased from 33,000 in 2013 to 101,000 in 2014. It is believed that although the subsidy policy after adjustment has a certain degree of decline and technical requirements are more stringent, it is still an important factor driving the development of the industry. 2) At the same time, in the car-restricted city, the new energy license is driven significantly. Shenzhen has promoted more than 2,000 new energy vehicles in 2013-2014. After the purchase restriction at the end of 2014, in 2015, Shenzhen promoted 35,000 new energy vehicles.
New energy vehicle production (10,000 units)
Significant driving force for new energy licenses
New energy vehicle subsidy standard (ten thousand yuan)
The point trading system is exerted from the supply side. The carbon emission quota management consultation draft released in August 2016 draws on California's ZEV policy and is expected to be launched nationwide in 2017. It will manage automobile carbon emissions in combination with China's existing carbon emission trading management policy. . Although there are still some details that need to be perfected and concerns about the difficulty of implementation, on the other hand, it indicates that the country's promotion of the new energy automobile industry will shift from financial subsidies to production, which is equivalent to setting the lower limit of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
California ZEV Policy Implementation Steps
California, US new energy vehicle penetration rate
Second, it is estimated that the sales volume will be 750,000 in 2017, and the growth of the passenger cars and logistics vehicles will be strong.
In 2016, industry demand was suppressed, and commercial vehicles were the focus of rectification. Commercial vehicles such as buses and special vehicles are the hardest hit areas, and they are also the key areas for rectification in 2016. In the first three batches of 2016 the introduction of new energy vehicles subsidies directory type, no special vehicle models, the first batch of 4,5 directory by the end of 2016 before landing, private car demand was severely inhibited. In addition, in the latest subsidy program, the subsidy mode of passenger cars was changed to electricity subsidies and caps, and the slope rate exceeded 40%, which was larger than that of passenger cars.
New energy vehicle production (vehicle)
New energy vehicle production structure
Passenger cars are less affected by subsidies and growth will accelerate. In the newly introduced new energy subsidy adjustment policy, only the technical requirements for the energy density of the passenger car battery system were added, and the upper limit of the local subsidy was set, and the subsidy standard was not adjusted. In addition, the driving role of the license plate will continue. Since the new energy vehicles produced in 2016-2017 can deduct the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credit system implemented in 2018, passenger car manufacturers will also launch a large number of new energy vehicles in 2017.
New energy passenger car subsidy standard (2015-2018)
The point trading system forces automobile manufacturers to increase the supply of new energy vehicles in a short period of time. Plug-in hybrids are more acceptable to consumers because of the lack of cruising range and the advantages of both fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. Affected by financial subsidies, PHEVs in China's new energy vehicles are relatively low compared to other countries. With the gradual decline of financial subsidies and the implementation of the point trading system, plug-in electric vehicles will usher in development.
New energy passenger car subsidy standard (10,000 yuan / vehicle)
The actual integral value of new energy vehicles in China's point trading system
PHEV ratio in new energy vehicle ownership in 2015
US, California pure, mixed new energy vehicle penetration rate
The growth rate of passenger cars is slowing down, and the growth momentum of logistics vehicles is strong. Due to the small scale of subsidies and the low mileage and endurance requirements of logistics vehicles, the demand for suppression in 2016 is expected to break out in 2017. The passenger car is sensitive to price, the subsidy has a large decline and the technical requirements are improved. It is expected that the passenger car growth rate will slow down in 2017.
New Energy Bus 2017 Subsidy Standard
It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 750,000 in 2017. Passenger cars are expected to accelerate their growth due to the small subsidies and the promotion of the licenses in the restricted purchase area and the incentives for the point trading system implemented in 2018. Passenger cars are expected to slow down due to the large extent of the slope and the increasing technical difficulty. Due to the suppression of demand for logistics vehicles in 2016, the subsidy policy will release this part of the demand and is expected to grow rapidly.
2017 new energy vehicle sales forecast (10,000 units)
Third, battery overcapacity, policy risks, optimistic about wet diaphragm, electrolyte
Power battery overcapacity and policy risks. According to statistics, the current production capacity of power batteries at the end of 2016 is 42.7GWH, and it is expected that the production capacity will reach 84GWH by 2017. Far more than the estimated demand for the 35GWH power battery in 2017, the production capacity is very sufficient. However, in November 2016, the "Guidelines for the Standardization of Automotive Power Battery Industry" draft, the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells increased to 8 billion watt-hours (8GWH), 39 times higher than in 2015. . Industry policy risks are high.
China's power battery demand forecast
Diaphragm: Domestic technology advancement and wet diaphragm ratio will increase significantly. The growth of ternary batteries will drive the growth of wet diaphragm sales.
Electrolyte: The cost will decrease, and the proportion of ternary dynamic electrolyte will increase. The main raw materials of the electrolyte (about 40% of the cost) will increase the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2017. The price will decrease and the electrolyte cost will decrease.
Cathode material: new capacity release and industry competition intensified. In 2016, a number of companies will expand their production capacity on a large scale, and new capacity will be released in 2017. Industry competition will intensify and the overall profitability of the industry will decline.
Anode material: Entering capacity elimination period, profitability declines. The concentration of the industry has increased, the industry has become more differentiated, and it has entered the low-end repetitive capacity elimination period.
Ex-factory price of lithium carbonate (Borui Lithium, yuan / ton)
Lithium battery separator production forecast for 2014-2020 (100 million square meters)
Fourth, the investment rhythm: the second quarter monthly sales, local subsidy policy introduced
2017 Q2 sales and land subsidy policies were introduced. From the sales structure of new energy vehicles in previous years, sales volume has shown a trend of low and high, and the monthly sales in the second quarter can be used as an important indicator for observing annual sales. In addition, local new energy vehicle subsidy policy.
New energy passenger car monthly sales (vehicle)
2017 trend investment continuation
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