The international oil price that has fallen all the way since May this year has made domestic oil prices expected to usher in the first "three-day losing streak" this week. The monitoring data of many institutions showed that despite the tension in Iran, international oil prices rebounded last week, but the rate of change in domestic oil prices still exceeded -9%. This means that the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be officially opened on Wednesday.
US non-farm payrolls data hits international oil prices
Under the influence of the tightening of the situation in Iran, international oil prices have seen a rare rebound last week. US crude oil futures rose more than 4% last Tuesday, and Brent crude oil futures rose more than 3%, once again standing at a high of $100. However, the short-term rebound in international oil prices has only narrowed the rate of change of crude oil in the three places, and still has not changed the situation that the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open this week.
As of July 5, the 19th working day after the last domestic adjustment of refined oil prices, the data of several monitoring agencies showed that the weighted average price of the three crude oils for 22 consecutive days was around US$97 per barrel. The rate of change in crude oil is around -9%, far exceeding the red line of -4%.
In fact, international oil prices may continue the previous downturn throughout July. According to employment data released by the United States on July 6, the United States only increased employment by 80,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 8.2%. In the second quarter of the past, the non-agricultural sector in the United States increased the average monthly employment by 75,000, which is only about one-third of the monthly average of the first quarter.
This far lower than the market's widely expected data directly led to the international oil price fell again last Friday. At the close of the day, the price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.77 US dollars to close at 84.45 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 3.18%. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell $2.51 to close at $98.19 a barrel, down 2.5%.
"Three-day losing" has become a nail
The weak economic data made the rate of change of the three crude oils unsurprisingly stable outside the -4% red line, and by this Wednesday, the price of refined oil products had reached 22 working days since the last time. Domestic oil prices ushered in the first "three-day losing streak" in July.
"The price of this refined oil product should be reduced by 600-650 yuan / ton, but the last time the NDRC lowered the discount rate, it is not known whether the NDRC will be discounted again." Anxun Siwangwang Energy Oil Product Analyst Liao Kaiyu said.
However, regardless of the extent of the downward adjustment, the market's expectation of lowering the price of refined oil products has been unprecedented. This directly led to a serious decline in the operating rate of the two major oil refineries. Monitoring data from Zhongyu Information showed that the operating rate of China's main refineries continued to decline in the middle of June, as some refineries entered maintenance during the month and Sinopec lowered its processing load again. As of June 21, the operating rate of 35 major refineries fell by 0.62 percentage points to 81.47% from two weeks ago.
However, with the advent of the third quarter, the peak season for the purchase and sale of refined oil “Golden September and Silver 10†is getting closer. Ma Yu, an analyst of Zhongyu Information Oil Products, said that after the country lowered the retail price of gasoline and diesel, the market will resume normal replenishment. As long as the international crude oil price remains stable thereafter, the average price change rate of the three crude oils will not fall below -4% again, and domestic retail prices will stabilize for some time. Beginning in July and August, market participants will often choose to replenish the reserve for the gold period of oil purchase and sale. The wholesale price of gasoline and diesel is likely to rebound due to this.
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