With the announcement of the reform of the power system, the reform of the oil and gas system is the highlight of China's energy sector reform. Relevant reform plans are being studied and developed. Foreign media even exposed that China is considering the merger of PetroChina and Sinopec, or the merger of CNOOC and Sinopec. .
However, Lu Dapeng, a spokesman for Sinopec, said publicly that he did not hear such news. The insiders of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission also told reporters on February 27 that the news about such mergers has not been heard within the system, and the SASAC believes that the possibility is zero according to common sense.
"For PetroChina and Sinopec, unless the future is achieved on the basis of vertical splitting, the possibility of horizontal merger can be explored," said Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network.
In the first half of the year, it is expected that both parties will be introduced. Although all authorities believe that the merger of the two barrels of oil is an oolong, the institutional reform of the energy sector is indeed in full swing. On February 27, the reporter learned from the sources that the oil and gas system reform plan has become the focus of the first half of this year and is currently under research and development. It is expected to be completed in the first half of the year.
"Electricity reform will be introduced soon before the two sessions. The focus of the energy sector reform in the first half of this year is on electricity reform and oil reform. With the introduction of electricity reform, oil reform is the next major event." On February 27, one approached A source from the National Development and Reform Commission told reporters.
The reporter was informed earlier that on December 24 last year, "Several Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of the Power System" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions") was approved in principle by the State Council executive meeting. The "Electricity Reform" of the new power reform was led by the Economic Reform Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments. It began to solicit opinions in July last year.
As early as June 13 last year, President Xi Jinping emphasized at the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group that it should "actively promote the reform of the energy system, speed up the formulation of the overall reform of the power system and the reform of the oil and gas system, and initiate laws and regulations in the field of energy." Change the waste work." This requirement has become the strongest signal for electric and oil reform problems.
Han Xiaoping believes that the new power reform plan is not perfect, but its important significance is that the top focus on heavy resistance takes a big step, and the electricity reform itself is a gradual, continuous improvement process. The oil and gas reform was basically in a state of stagnation. With the implementation of the electricity reform program, the reform focus of the government should be the oil and gas reform.
Earlier media reports said that insiders of state-owned oil companies revealed that the oil and gas system reform plan was introduced in the first half of this year, which would have a major impact on the current oil and gas system.
The possibility of horizontal merger is small. Obviously, the news that Sinopec and Sinopec may merge is coming from the industry's heated discussion on oil and gas reform.
During the Spring Festival, foreign media reported that the Chinese government economic consultants are conducting feasibility studies on various possible integration plans for the petroleum and petrochemical industry. One option is to merge PetroChina with Sinopec; the other is to consider the merger of CNOOC and Sinopec.
Affected by this news, PetroChina opened up nearly 4% on February 25, and finally closed at 11.23 yuan, up 1.35%; Sinopec opened up nearly 5%, and finally closed at 6.09 yuan, up 3.40%.
However, on February 25, Lu Dapeng publicly responded: "First, we have never heard of this inside. Second, our principle is not to evaluate rumors. Because it is from foreign media, they may have their own The source of information, this we are not very clear."
However, the news of the merger of the North and South vehicles was confirmed, and the industry has speculated that the reform of the state-owned enterprises is not the wind.
"The merger of the North and South vehicles is to avoid vicious competition in overseas markets, but there is no such problem between PetroChina and Sinopec, and the business focus of the two companies is not the same, there is no possibility of merger." This tells reporters.
Citibank believes that scale is not a major obstacle to the competitiveness of PetroChina and Sinopec. According to global standards, the two major oil companies are already large. According to market capitalization, PetroChina ranks second in the world, and upstream business is second only to ExxonMobil. . In addition, we believe that the merger of PetroChina and Sinopec is unlikely to improve efficiency, and the merger also has the goal of reforming state-owned enterprises. If consolidated, PetroChina and Sinopec will account for 77% of China's upstream oil and gas production, 79% of smelted products, and 90% of retail oil. One of the goals of state-owned enterprise reform is to increase private participation and increase competition. The merger of the two companies clearly has this goal.
Citi also believes that the relevant research does not mean that action will be taken. In 2013, the government studied the feasibility of establishing a national oil pipeline company, but the proposal was rejected. We believe that the government often studies ways to restructure the industrial structure, but this does not mean that the proposal will necessarily have action. We think that the possibility of merger between CNPC and Sinopec is very small.
Han Xiaoping pointed out that Sinopec's production efficiency has risen sharply through mixed ownership reform, and it has already achieved profitability. However, whether PetroChina is rising or falling, it is always losing money. In this way, the horizontal merger of the two companies does not achieve 1+1>2, and may be dragged on each other, and retrograde with the market-oriented reform proposed by Xi Jinping; and the two companies occupy the upstream and downstream respectively in the domestic market, and in the overseas market respectively. There is no vicious competition in the development of different countries, and there is no need for horizontal merger.
"The possibility of directly and horizontally combining two barrels of oil is relatively small, and the reform cannot be reversed. The biggest possibility is to take some business segments of the two barrels of oil out and reorganize. For example, if the government establishes a national pipe network company, it may put two barrels of oil. The part of the pipe network was brought out and merged.†Han Xiaoping told reporters that the rumors of the merger of two barrels of oil should be no wind and no waves, probably because the recent oil and gas reform has been put on the agenda, which is an idea in various official research programs.
The focus of oil reform is on liberating China Petroleum. “The liberation of China Petroleum should be the focus of oil and gas reform,†said Han Xiaoping. PetroChina holds the best resources in the oil and gas sector, with more than 1.5 million employees, but its oil and gas production is only about 100,000 employees. Shell is almost the same, production efficiency is too low.
According to the information held by the reporter, at present, PetroChina holds the main domestic oil and gas resources, of which 67% of domestic natural gas resources and 55% of petroleum resources are in its territory.
“And these are the best resources in China.†Han Xiaoping said that PetroChina also has a large number of the best talents in the oil and gas industry, with the best quality resources and the best talents, why the production efficiency is the lowest, this is the problem of the system. Therefore, the liberation of PetroChina, this company will release a huge amount of energy.
In Han Xiaoping's view, PetroChina's existing system has been solidified. In the future, oil and gas reform may push its reforms from the outside, but the real reforms must be carried out from within. If there is no major exchange, internal reforms will have many obstacles, but oil anti-corruption has already This iceberg has been opened up, and the next step is how to deploy reform forces. "In addition, because the resources of PetroChina are too complicated, the reform should first split the resources from the vertical to rationalize its resources to form different sectors. With the successful experience of Sinopec's mixed reform, it is imperative for PetroChina to split an asset management company, like Sinopec throws fat meat to find funds for the market."
Han Xiaoping told reporters that when Fu Chengyu was engaged in mixed reforms at Sinopec and took out the fat meat of the gas station, the internal opposition was also very strong, but the actual situation was that the gas station was in the hands of Sinopec, which was a chicken and was thrown into the market. It became a golden phoenix, which attracted a lot of money to Sinopec without cost, and at the same time revitalized the gas station assets.
For Sinopec and CNOOC, Han Xiaoping believes that if the two companies merge, they may realize complementary resources.
Since Wang Yilin succeeded Fu Chengyu as the head of CNOOC, the industry commented that CNOOC is becoming more and more “PetroChinaâ€. In the past two years, Wang Yilin has made a name for himself because of the acquisition of Canadian oil company Nixon. The $15.1 billion deal is by far the largest overseas energy acquisition transaction in China.
Now, Nixon and other overseas assets acquired in the past five years have become a heavy burden for CNOOC, especially when oil prices have plummeted. JPMorgan Chase said that CNOOC may need to write down more than $5 billion on Nixon-related assets.
"Now the international oil price is lower, oil and gas reform is a good time. If it is really necessary to integrate domestic oil companies, Sinopec and CNOOC will be merged by Fu Chengyu to carry out the reform of mixed ownership, and PetroChina can merge with Sinochem Group." Han Xiaoping said.
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