The end of the transition period! New Energy Subsidy Policy Formally Implemented and Forced Comprehensive Upgrade of Industry

On February 13 this year, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly issued the "Circular on Adjusting and Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (Caijian [2018] No. 18). This notice stipulates that from February 12, 2018, June 11th, 2018 is the transition period of the New Deal. During the transition period, new energy passenger cars and new energy buses on the brand are subsidized at 0.7 times the corresponding standard, new energy trucks and special vehicles are subsidized at 0.4 times, and the subsidy standard for fuel cell vehicles is not change.

Now, with the end of the transition period, what are the major changes in the new subsidy policy compared to 2017? What impact will it have on the new energy automotive industry? And see below analysis.

Change 1: More Subsidy for Passenger Vehicles

In the area of ​​new energy passenger vehicles, the New Deal was subsidized in 2018. According to the range of cruising range of pure electric passenger vehicles, the subsidy standard was divided into five grades, two more than the 2017 version. First, the subsidy for 150 to 200 kilometers of battery life dropped drastically from 36,000 to 15,000; the 200 to 250 kilometers of battery life dropped from 36,000 to 24,000; the original 250 kilometers or more subsidy was 44,000, and is now split into third gear: 250- The 300 km subsidy of 34,000, the 300-400 km increase of 1,000 yuan, the subsidy of 45,000, and the increase of 6,000 yuan for 400 kilometers of subsidy will be 50,000 yuan. In addition, subsidies for plug-in hybrid passenger cars dropped by 2,000 yuan to 22,000 yuan.

In addition, in the subsidy policy of 2018, the amount of subsidy for bicycles (mileage allowance standard x battery system energy density adjustment coefficient x vehicle energy consumption adjustment factor) was set on the line, ie, the upper limit of the unit battery subsidy was no more than 1200 yuan/kWh. Some industry insiders pointed out that this clause is designed to prevent A00-class vehicles from running out of long distances with very few batteries and thus obtain excessive subsidies.

On the whole, models with less than 150 kilometers of battery life will no longer be subsidized; subsidies for 150-300 kilometers of vehicle models for pure electric vehicles will be reduced by about 20%-50% respectively; models with cruising range of 300-400 kilometers and 400 kilometers or more, Subsidies are raised by 2% to 14% respectively.

According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the association, the models with high cruising range have a higher demand for battery capacity and require more room for battery loading, which in turn will promote the mid- and large-scale development of new energy vehicles and promote new energy vehicles in a balanced manner. In the balanced development of electric, intelligent, networked, and better meet the needs of the development of high-end, this policy will have a positive role in promoting the new forces of car makers.

Change 2: Technical requirements have been fully improved

Compared with the increase and decrease in the amount of subsidy for different mileage, the New Deal has raised all requirements for technologies such as battery energy density and vehicle energy consumption.

In terms of power battery system energy density, the lower limit is increased from 90 wh/kg to 105 wh/kg, and the grade is divided into four grades: models with 105 (inclusive)-120 Wh/kg are subsidized at 0.6 times; models with 120 (inclusive)-140 Wh/kg According to 1 times subsidy; 140 (including) -160Wh/kg models by 1.1 times the subsidy; 160Wh/kg and above models by 1.2 times subsidy, the current list of recommended car battery power system with the highest energy density is 158wh/kg The setting of this file shows that the New Deal has a certain forward-looking nature.

Cui Dongshu said that the increase in battery energy density is a key indicator for the development of new energy vehicles. Compared with the slow increase in the previous period, the new policy has a more prominent effect on battery pull, and it also leads to further highlights of the advantages and disadvantages of battery companies in terms of technology. Promote the rapid development of advanced battery companies.

In addition, the New Deal also adjusted the energy level coefficient of pure electric passenger cars, and increased the demand for electricity consumption (Y) of 100 kilometers under the corresponding standards. According to the latest policy, according to the different vehicle mass (m), the power consumption (Y) for a hundred kilometers under working conditions should meet the following threshold conditions: when m≤1000kg, Y≤0.0126×m+0.45;1000 At 1600 kg, Y ≤ 0.0045×m+12.33.

It is worth mentioning here that the New Deal has provided additional subsidies for products that perform better on electricity consumption per hundred kilometers (Y). For example, the 100 kilometers of electricity consumption (Y) is better than the threshold of 0 (inclusive)-5% of the models. 0.5 times the subsidy, superior to the threshold of 5 (inclusive) -25% of the models by 1 times the subsidy, superior to the threshold of 25% (including) more than 1.1 times the subsidy model.

Change 3: Bus's full-scale degression

In terms of new energy buses, the subsidy standards for all types of passenger cars have declined compared to 2017, among which the plug-in hybrid (including incremental trains) has the largest rate of slope reduction, and it has dropped to half directly from the standard of 3,000 yuan per kwh.

The energy density of the non-fast-charged pure electric bus battery system is higher than 115Wh/kg, and only the system energy density exceeds 135Wh/kg to get 1.1 times the subsidy; the fast-charge type pure electric bus has little change in the fast charge rate requirement, but is fast The proportion of subsidy with a recharge rate higher than 15C has decreased from the original 1.4 times to 1.1 times; the fuel-saving rate of plug-in hybrid (including incremental) buses is higher than 60%.

In the view of Cui Dongshu, in the four-month transitional period, new energy passenger vehicles are subsidized at 0.7 times the corresponding standard. During the official implementation period of the New Deal from June 12 to the end of the year, subsidies should be reduced slightly, and the impact is not significant. In addition, as the new energy of urban bus passengers has reached a higher proportion, there is not much demand in overseas markets, and the expansion of electric new energy bus market encounters ceilings, so the subsidy of the New Deal has little impact on passenger cars.

Change 4: Special Vehicle Energy Density Not Less than 115Wh/kg

As the only vehicle in the transition period that drastically reduced subsidies (subsidized by 0.4 times), new energy vehicles have been adjusted after the implementation of the New Deal. The energy density of the first loaded battery system is not less than 115Wh/kg. Second, pure electric trucks, The special-purpose vehicles for transportation shall not exceed 0.4Wh/km•kg per unit of mass energy consumption (Ekg), 0.2 times subsidies for 0.35-0.4 Wh/km•kg (inclusive), and 0.35Wh/km•kg for the following vehicles. The one-time subsidy is levied; In addition, the electric power consumption per 100 kilometers of the special electric vehicle for the operation class (according to the test quality) does not exceed 8 kWh.

Special-purpose vehicles are relatively simple in product technology, and their uses are rather special. Prior to the higher subsidies, the development of low-tech vehicle models led to rapid expansion. Therefore, during the transition period of the New Deal, the state took a relatively subsidy measure for special vehicles, that is, compared to 17 The year is substantially reduced by 60%. With the implementation of this new policy on subsidies, special vehicles will further improve vehicle energy consumption and other designs based on the increase in energy density.

Geshi summary: Compared with the 2017 subsidy standard, although the subsidy amount is generally declining, it is not difficult to find that the new policy is gradually reducing the subsidy for new energy vehicles with low cruising mileage and low battery energy density. And new energy vehicles with higher performance indicators should appropriately increase their subsidies. With the arrival of June 12, 2018, the entire new energy automobile industry will further enter the "post-subsidy era." In the future, the development of the new energy automobile industry will be gradually divided, and the era of industry reshuffle of the survival of the fittest will accelerate.