In an interview with the media, the person in charge of the China Drying Network News European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) said that the economic downturn will still affect the European chemical industry in the short term. In the long run, the global inferior position of raw material competitiveness in the region is a structural issue that needs adjustment. However, the European chemical industry has a competitive advantage in terms of high value-added products, high-carbon olefins supply, and energy efficiency. As long as we can seize opportunities, the outlook remains optimistic.
Tom Crotty, EPCA chairman and director of Ineos Group, said that the European chemical industry still faces challenges in the rest of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. Tang Luodi said that the European chemical industry has not been as bright as it was in 2011. The euro zone debt crisis has led to a weak demand in key end markets, forcing crackers to reduce operating rates. “There are many signs of a good recovery in 2011. However, the second wave of the euro zone debt crisis has stopped the recovery and weakened market confidence. Fortunately, the current demand has not collapsed as completely as in 2008-2009. As a whole, the industry as a whole is still profitable, but it is impossible to pursue huge profits in Europe."
Tang Luodi believes that the cost competitiveness of raw materials in Europe is below the United States and the Middle East. The supply of cheap ethane from shale gas has injected new vitality into the US chemical industry, and Europe’s status has become increasingly unstable. The story of the rise of the chemical industry in the Middle East is already familiar. At the same time, the United States will also usher in many new crackers and large-scale capacity expansion in the next three to five years. In Europe, although there is some downstream capacity expansion, it lacks the large-scale ethylene expansion plan like other regions.
EPCA believes that although the European chemical industry faces multiple challenges, it can still seize opportunities through competitive advantage. Tang Luodi is optimistic about the prospects of light pyrolysis raw materials. He pointed out: "With time, more and more investment will be transferred to the United States, so for us, the development of alternative materials is critical." He believes that the development of shale gas feedstock in Europe may take more than five years. "However, for the petrochemical project investment cycle, it will not take too long." The amount of shale gas available for extraction in Europe is 639 trillion cubic feet, and the United States is 862 trillion cubic feet.
Tang Luodi said: "We want the government to understand that the development of this new resource is crucial to maintaining the competitiveness of the European chemical industry." Many European politicians strongly oppose shale gas exploration. For example, in September, the French President François Hollande said that the country will continue to implement the water fracking ban.
Tang Luodi pointed out that in terms of the use of shale gas, Europe already has some advantages, because there is already a cracking production facility using natural gas as a raw material, especially in Northern Europe, where efforts are made to extract natural gas from the North Sea. The North Sea's ethane production is declining. It is a good time to find alternatives.
Reina Dix, member of EPCA's board of directors and head of BASF's petrochemicals business, believes that although the U.S. raw material advantages are becoming more and more obvious, in Europe and Asia, at least for the next 10 years, it will not be possible to see similar trend of lighter raw materials. Because the supply of natural gas raw materials is still limited. He also emphasized that while light raw materials bring price advantages, they also reduce the production of high-carbon olefins. For naphtha crackers, the high yield of propylene and C4 products is a competitive advantage.
Dix also pointed out that although some chemical production facilities in Europe are too old and need to optimize the process, and the factory's production scale is far less than the new factories in Asia and the Middle East, many European manufacturers operate an integrated production base, close to customers, and have comparatively High energy efficiency and optimized product portfolio. In the Middle East and the United States, when manufacturers supply products to customers, they need to travel long distances, which has high logistics costs.
In response to the current market environment, European chemical companies are also adjusting their strategies in a timely manner. Tang Luodi revealed that Ineos is currently focusing on some of the more robust downstream markets that are not affected by the economic cycle, such as food packaging. Tang Luodi pointed out that Europe must use its innovative technologies to seize opportunities. The driving force behind this opportunity comes from environmental performance. “We are currently working hard to develop new lightweight, high-strength polymers to reduce the quality of automobiles, aircraft, and packaging and achieve CO2 emission reductions. European producers cannot compete with Middle Eastern producers and cannot simply implement price wars. The creation of high value-added products is the key."
The insufficiency of supply of C3 and C4 products led to a rise in prices. Naphtha crackers decided to promptly release them in time. BASF and other companies will build and expand butadiene extraction facilities in Europe.
In addition, Ineos is implementing a solution to the cost of ethylene raw materials. The company’s ethylene reception station in Antwerp, Belgium, has been completed and is expected to be operational within the next three to four months. He said that the one million tons ethylene receiving station will greatly expand the company's ethylene source and reduce its ethylene purchase cost.
“Ineos is a net buyer of ethylene. After this receiving station is built, ethylene can be transported from here to the factories in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp. The company is just like having a virtual cracking device that can selectively purchase ethylene raw materials. This saves costs, provides a stable supply for downstream installations, and prevents suppliers from driving up prices.â€
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