International crude oil prices, such as off-the-spot wild horses, have gone all the way, far exceeding the forecast and psychological tolerance of most people. With the international oil price hitting new highs, the oil sector stocks such as CNPC, Sinopec, and Sinopec Corp. began to rise collectively last week, stimulated by the possibility that domestic refined oil prices will be released in June.
However, relevant state departments quickly clarified this rumor. The competent authorities indicated that it is impossible to release the prices of domestic refined oil products in the crucial period of this earthquake relief and reconstruction.
Experts pointed out that there are three main reasons why short-term refined oil prices are hard to be let go. First, post-disaster reconstruction needs absolute protection of energy security. Post-disaster reconstruction requires the prosperity of industries such as construction, machinery, and transportation. If the price of refined oil is too high, the enthusiasm for the construction of related companies will be greatly reduced. Second, the current lifting of the price of refined oil products is not conducive to controlling the CPI. Under the background of the current priority for disaster relief, the prevention of "surge" in CPI is related to the smooth operation of the economy. Third, China's refined oil market does not yet have the conditions for market pricing, and the timing of lifting the ban is not yet mature. People concerned with the National Development and Reform Commission also said that refined oil prices involve all aspects of the economy. Once it is completely in line with international standards, no one can guarantee that inflation will not occur. Therefore, the government will not venture out of the ban on refined oil prices in the special period after the earthquake.
Zhu Binggang, deputy director of the expert committee of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s expert advice center, also believes that in the face of the high CPI and the current earthquake relief work has become the focus of the current national work, the price of refined oil is unlikely to be liberalized during the year.
If we stand from the perspective of tightening the monetary policy, in the face of the severe situation of the current monthly CPI increase of more than 8%, taking into account the year's 4.8% increase in the regulatory objectives, the release of refined oil prices is indeed outdated. One expert pointed out that once energy prices are adjusted as a whole, they will inevitably lead to a sudden increase in pressure from the PPI on CPI. The rigid characteristics of related demand will allow the market to see more abnormal CPI gains. Therefore, from the perspective of investment operation, all market expectations may deteriorate, including macroeconomic tightening, investment market trends, and profitability of listed companies. The profit and loss of market investors cannot escape the huge negative impact.
In spite of this, whether it is the competent department, related industries or research institutions, it is also believed that straightening out refined oil prices is not only imperative, but also an inevitable trend.
At present, the spread of refined oil products at home and abroad is still widening, which brings heavy cost pressures to refined oil production companies. Relevant research shows that the current domestic oil refinery breakeven point is 80 US dollars / barrel. Even if its corresponding crude oil price is 120 US dollars/barrel, the loss per ton has reached about 2,000 yuan. With the further surge in international crude oil prices, such losses are still further widening. If we continue to maintain such a low oil price policy, it will not be conducive to the optimization of the long-term development pattern of domestic related industries, and it will not be conducive to reducing the realization of energy consumption targets.
Carrier Financial analysts said that apparently effective price control measures can certainly relieve the market's worries psychologically within a certain period of time, but fundamentally speaking, it cannot allow price-free market adjustment mechanisms to die out. Crucially, underestimated oil prices will encourage the demand for high-energy-consuming industries. In this sense, the subsidy funds given to the petrochemical monopolies by the government are actually subsidized by high-energy-consuming industries. By encouraging these industries to expand and reproduce, they have intensified the pressure on the economy to overheat.
Another research institution also believes that, on the surface, the maintenance of domestic low-energy policies through fiscal subsidies may appear effective in the short term, but in fact, a large amount of energy subsidies subsidize the world through export trade, further exacerbating inflation’s “pooring of povertyâ€. Rich effect. Therefore, it is imperative to straighten out refined oil prices. At the time of price adjustment, whether in early June, early September, or early December, the trend of rationalizing refined oil prices is certain.
However, in view of the current situation of domestic earthquake relief and the pressure of the high CPI, the pressure from upward adjustment of the price in the upstream sector may indeed burst out. Therefore, the method and timing of product oil price increases require special attention, and it also puts forward a more realistic test on the skills of the relevant regulatory agencies to implement the control policies.
“The choice of price adjustment method and timing is an art. We believe that the international oil price will not be able to drastically decline in the short term. Therefore, if the difference in the price of finished oil is nearly doubled, there will always be a price to adjust and adjust. The effect of one-time price adjustment is in place. Better than step-by-step price adjustment will not only help eliminate the expectation of persistent inflation, but also combat international and domestic speculation and help stabilize prices. In order to balance fairness, it can be adjusted according to end- It started with gasoline that had the least harm to the economy, extended to gasoline, and finally diesel,†said the institutional analyst of the agency.
A number of industries and organizations have determined that it is more likely to increase the threshold for oil special income funds in the near future in order to reduce the burden on companies before raising the price of refined oil products. In the middle of this month, CNPC chairman Jiang Jiemin said in an interview that “the relevant authorities are currently studying (the issue)â€.
However, relevant state departments quickly clarified this rumor. The competent authorities indicated that it is impossible to release the prices of domestic refined oil products in the crucial period of this earthquake relief and reconstruction.
Experts pointed out that there are three main reasons why short-term refined oil prices are hard to be let go. First, post-disaster reconstruction needs absolute protection of energy security. Post-disaster reconstruction requires the prosperity of industries such as construction, machinery, and transportation. If the price of refined oil is too high, the enthusiasm for the construction of related companies will be greatly reduced. Second, the current lifting of the price of refined oil products is not conducive to controlling the CPI. Under the background of the current priority for disaster relief, the prevention of "surge" in CPI is related to the smooth operation of the economy. Third, China's refined oil market does not yet have the conditions for market pricing, and the timing of lifting the ban is not yet mature. People concerned with the National Development and Reform Commission also said that refined oil prices involve all aspects of the economy. Once it is completely in line with international standards, no one can guarantee that inflation will not occur. Therefore, the government will not venture out of the ban on refined oil prices in the special period after the earthquake.
Zhu Binggang, deputy director of the expert committee of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s expert advice center, also believes that in the face of the high CPI and the current earthquake relief work has become the focus of the current national work, the price of refined oil is unlikely to be liberalized during the year.
If we stand from the perspective of tightening the monetary policy, in the face of the severe situation of the current monthly CPI increase of more than 8%, taking into account the year's 4.8% increase in the regulatory objectives, the release of refined oil prices is indeed outdated. One expert pointed out that once energy prices are adjusted as a whole, they will inevitably lead to a sudden increase in pressure from the PPI on CPI. The rigid characteristics of related demand will allow the market to see more abnormal CPI gains. Therefore, from the perspective of investment operation, all market expectations may deteriorate, including macroeconomic tightening, investment market trends, and profitability of listed companies. The profit and loss of market investors cannot escape the huge negative impact.
In spite of this, whether it is the competent department, related industries or research institutions, it is also believed that straightening out refined oil prices is not only imperative, but also an inevitable trend.
At present, the spread of refined oil products at home and abroad is still widening, which brings heavy cost pressures to refined oil production companies. Relevant research shows that the current domestic oil refinery breakeven point is 80 US dollars / barrel. Even if its corresponding crude oil price is 120 US dollars/barrel, the loss per ton has reached about 2,000 yuan. With the further surge in international crude oil prices, such losses are still further widening. If we continue to maintain such a low oil price policy, it will not be conducive to the optimization of the long-term development pattern of domestic related industries, and it will not be conducive to reducing the realization of energy consumption targets.
Carrier Financial analysts said that apparently effective price control measures can certainly relieve the market's worries psychologically within a certain period of time, but fundamentally speaking, it cannot allow price-free market adjustment mechanisms to die out. Crucially, underestimated oil prices will encourage the demand for high-energy-consuming industries. In this sense, the subsidy funds given to the petrochemical monopolies by the government are actually subsidized by high-energy-consuming industries. By encouraging these industries to expand and reproduce, they have intensified the pressure on the economy to overheat.
Another research institution also believes that, on the surface, the maintenance of domestic low-energy policies through fiscal subsidies may appear effective in the short term, but in fact, a large amount of energy subsidies subsidize the world through export trade, further exacerbating inflation’s “pooring of povertyâ€. Rich effect. Therefore, it is imperative to straighten out refined oil prices. At the time of price adjustment, whether in early June, early September, or early December, the trend of rationalizing refined oil prices is certain.
However, in view of the current situation of domestic earthquake relief and the pressure of the high CPI, the pressure from upward adjustment of the price in the upstream sector may indeed burst out. Therefore, the method and timing of product oil price increases require special attention, and it also puts forward a more realistic test on the skills of the relevant regulatory agencies to implement the control policies.
“The choice of price adjustment method and timing is an art. We believe that the international oil price will not be able to drastically decline in the short term. Therefore, if the difference in the price of finished oil is nearly doubled, there will always be a price to adjust and adjust. The effect of one-time price adjustment is in place. Better than step-by-step price adjustment will not only help eliminate the expectation of persistent inflation, but also combat international and domestic speculation and help stabilize prices. In order to balance fairness, it can be adjusted according to end- It started with gasoline that had the least harm to the economy, extended to gasoline, and finally diesel,†said the institutional analyst of the agency.
A number of industries and organizations have determined that it is more likely to increase the threshold for oil special income funds in the near future in order to reduce the burden on companies before raising the price of refined oil products. In the middle of this month, CNPC chairman Jiang Jiemin said in an interview that “the relevant authorities are currently studying (the issue)â€.
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