National Competition for Nuclear Power Station “Rations” Resource Changes from Oil*

The EU released a report on the assessment of future uranium resources more than a week ago. The report contained an atmosphere of anxiety and tension. The annual report issued by the European Union's Supervisory Authority (ESA) states that the raw materials for uranium in all nuclear power plants in the world will be rapidly reduced in the next few years, and prices will soar. This is not yet the most pessimistic part of the report. “At the latest by 2020, all the world's uranium mines that have been developed will be mined, and the consumption of 70,000 tons of uranium per year in 435 nuclear power plants around the world will not be met.”

Whether the report was formulated by the “deaf” or “prophet” can only be confirmed after 10 years. It can be confirmed that, with the continuous development of nuclear power, the market’s demand for uranium ore has increased substantially. Began to become more and more tight. Since 1990, the demand for uranium in countries around the world has exceeded its output. Countries have to meet demand by hoarding uranium and reducing arms. From 1985 to 2003, due to the inability of production to meet the demand, the global uranium inventory has decreased by nearly 50%. At present, the global nuclear power plant's demand for uranium ore is about 65,000 tons per year, but the global uranium ore production is only 40,000 tons per year. From 2003 to 2007, due to the shortage of uranium, its price has soared by 1300%. According to the forecast of the OECD’s Nuclear Energy Agency, global nuclear power will usher in a new round of rapid development in the coming decades. It is estimated that by 2050, the installed capacity of nuclear power in the world will increase by more than 1 billion kilowatts, or even more, than it has now. This will be followed by a substantial increase in the demand for uranium ore.

From this we can see that in order to solve the problem of “rations” for nuclear power plants, uranium will become the focus of next-generation resource acquisition for nuclear power. Japan, which has no uranium resources and is dedicated to the development and utilization of nuclear power, is the first to realize the importance of acquiring uranium resources. Japan is the world’s third-largest nuclear power generation country. The Japanese government has always believed that nuclear power is the key to safeguarding energy supply. Japan’s plan for nuclear power’s share of the power structure will reach 40% by 2020. At present, its annual uranium consumption is about 8,400 tons.

For a depleted uranium country, the acquisition of uranium resources is crucial. In 2007, the then Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Kam Li Ming, said in an interview with the media that resource competition is shifting from oil competition to uranium competition. Japan’s strengths are energy-saving technologies and atomic energy-related technologies. Japan will use these advantages to strengthen negotiations. ability.

Along the trajectory of Japan’s energy diplomacy, we can find that for Central Asian countries, Japan mainly focuses on obtaining uranium resources. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and Central Asian countries, relying on government development assistance and other means, they have increased their understanding and trust with Central Asian countries, and generally established good diplomatic relations. The Japanese trading company Ito signed a purchase agreement with Kazatomprom, the Kazakh state-owned nuclear power company, for a total of 3,000 tons of enriched uranium for 10 years. Japan also attaches importance to cooperation with Russia in the field of nuclear energy. In December 2003, when Russian Prime Minister Kasyanov visited Japan, Japan and Russia discussed the issue of the use of nuclear energy. On May 13, 2009, during the visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Japan, the two countries signed a number of cooperation agreements, of which the Japan-Russia Atomic Energy Agreement was considered the latest achievement of Japan-Russia energy cooperation. According to the agreement, Japan will jointly mine uranium with Russia and import uranium fuel from Russia to ensure a stable supply of uranium fuel in Japan.

In addition to diplomatic efforts, the Japanese government has also actively assisted domestic enterprises to better cope with the increasingly fierce nuclear fuel competition in the international market, and provided assistance to domestic enterprises by providing assistance funds and expanding the scope of investment insurance. Japanese government officials have stated that in order to ensure Japan’s nuclear power needs for uranium fuel, it encourages Japanese companies to compete with their rivals, India and China, for nuclear fuel.

Japan sees India as its main competitor for uranium resources. India's energy resources are very poor, but its nuclear power development plan can be said to be ambitious. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in a recent speech that India plans to increase the installed capacity of nuclear power to 470 million kilowatts by 2050, which is 100 times bigger than the current one. However, the amount of uranium resources in India is only 124,000 tons, and the annual demand will reach 80,000 tons or more. The cumulative uranium demand during the entire life cycle of 470 million kilowatts of nuclear power is as high as nearly 5 million tons, equivalent to the current global conventional uranium mine. 40% of resources.

In terms of uranium exploration and development, France also holds a positive attitude. France is the second largest nuclear power generation country in the world. France’s Areva has made significant investments in the nuclear fuel front-end industry, including uranium exploration, uranium smelting, uranium conversion, uranium enrichment, and uranium components, in an attempt to keep France’s nuclear fuel industry at the advanced level in the world. Areva Company currently holds a 30% share of the world's nuclear fuel market, and reserves of uranium resources are quite abundant.

Compared with the aforementioned countries, reports on the development of China's overseas uranium resources are rarely found in the news media. However, according to the author's understanding, the current overseas development of China's uranium resources is good and preliminary results have been achieved. China National Nuclear Corporation has officially signed four related projects with Niger, Namibia and other countries, and has signed several project cooperation agreements with Algeria, Kazakhstan and Jordan. At present, China’s enterprises participating in international uranium mining include China National Nuclear Corporation, China National Steel Corporation, China General Nuclear Power Corporation, and China National Petroleum Corporation. China Atomic Energy Industry Co., Ltd. has built a stable international trade system for natural uranium, with a certain degree of international competitiveness, and the international uranium trade channel is unobstructed.

We do not have to worry too much about the competition in the international uranium raw material market. From the perspective of global nuclear power development, the uranium resources needed by most major nuclear power countries (except Russia and Canada) mainly come from the international market. While most of the uranium-rich countries themselves do not have nuclear power, the uranium resources market is an international market. The development and utilization of uranium resources in China is proceeding in accordance with the strategic idea of ​​“establishing a natural uranium resource safeguard system that includes the three channels of domestic production, overseas development, and international uranium trade” put forward in the “Mid-term and long-term development plan for nuclear power (2005-2020)”. jobs.

From the perspective of domestic demand, according to the “Nuclear Power Medium and Long Term Development Plan (2005-2020)” predicted data, by 2020 when China’s nuclear power installed capacity reaches 44968MW, natural uranium needs about 10340.2 tons, close to France’s demand in 2008. . By 2030, when China's installed nuclear power capacity reached 84,869 MW, the demand for natural uranium was 18148.8 tons, which was close to the demand of the United States in 2008. By 2050, when China's installed nuclear power capacity reaches 164,968 MW, it will require approximately 3,3766.1 tons of natural uranium, accounting for 52% of the uranium demand in 2008, and a total of 76,6672.2 tons of natural uranium will be required.

Judging from the supply of domestic uranium resources, according to the country’s second round of national uranium resource potential assessment and evaluation, China has a considerable amount of uranium resources, and the amount of new resources will exceed 2 million tons. By 2020, our country will maintain the reserves of uranium resources to ensure the current development of nuclear power planning in China. It is generally believed that geological surveys will take about 10 years from the census to detailed investigation and formal submission of reserves. It will take four years or so for the subsequent mine construction. At present, the production scale of natural uranium in China is very small. At present, the output of uranium ore is about 750 tons. With the rapid development of nuclear power in China, the development of uranium resources needs to be actively followed up.

Overall, at present, the natural uranium market in the world is still a buyer's market. In addition to the fact that China has a considerable amount of uranium resources as its backing and support, it should strive to obtain uranium resources without additional conditions in the international market.