Coal resources forecast
First, the basis and method of prediction
Coal resource forecasting is one of the main tasks of the third national coalfield forecasting. It is required to comprehensively summarize the achievements in coalfield census and exploration, coalfield geological research since the second coalfield forecast, and a new understanding of the geological conditions of coalfields. Based on the prediction, it may be found that the coal resources are in the storage area and its potential resources and coal and coal quality, pointing out the prospects for the general survey of coal. The basic premise of this coal resource forecast is:
(1) The second coal field prediction (1975 ~ 1980) The basic understanding of the formation and distribution of coalfields in China and the related prediction results are the basis and starting point of this work.
(2) The practical results accumulated in coalfield geological surveys, censuses, explorations and coal mine developments completed since 1976 are the actual materials and basis for improving the degree of geological research in coalfields and carrying out a new round of forecasting.
(3) Since the "Sixth Five-Year Plan" (1981 ~ 1985), especially during the "Seventh Five-Year Plan" and "Eighth Five-Year Plan" period
Completed a number of important regional coalfield geological research topics, including the coal-slip structure and coal-seeking research in eastern China, the Late Paleozoic coal-collecting law and coal-seeking research in North China, and the Late Permian coal-bearing strata sedimentary environment in the eastern Sichuan Research on coal accumulation law, coal accumulation law and coal resource evaluation in Ordos Basin, sedimentary environment and coal accumulation law of Permian coal-bearing strata in South China, relevant provinces (regions) in coal-bearing stratum sedimentary environment, coal accumulation law, coal prospecting prediction The research on evaluation and some new theories and viewpoints in the field of coalfield geology in recent years have laid a theoretical foundation for this coal resource forecast.
(4) The research on the coal resources prospects conducted by the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources (1983 ~ 1988) and the relevant results of the China Coal Resources Series (1989 ~ 1992) prepared as a reference.
The coal resource forecast is conducted at the national and provincial (district) levels. The forecasting work of each province (district) is carried out under the unified guidance of the basic ideas, technical routes and working methods of the “Third National Coalfield Forecasting Work Outlineâ€, with coalfields or mining areas as the basic working units, and carried out on larger scale drawings. It is then integrated across the province (region) and is ultimately reflected on the drawings of 1 in 500,000 (1, 1 million in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia). When the national summary is based on the national, according to the requirements of system, overall and scientific, based on the provincial (regional) forecast data, the statistical results of the provinces (regions) are summarized and compiled, and the distribution map of 1/200,000 Chinese coal resources is compiled. And establish a national coal resource database as part of the national coal resource data information system.
When forecasting coal resources by province (district) and national level, it mainly considers the geological basis of coal-forming and coal-controlling conditions, as well as the practice basis based on census and exploration results.
The geological background of the generation and occurrence of coal resources in China is diverse. The coal-forming conditions and coal-collecting laws of different coal-forming periods and different coal-forming geotectonic units vary greatly, and the characteristics of coal-producing coal vary. Therefore, in the prediction of coal resources, it is necessary to consider the evolution of coal-bearing basins controlled by paleo-tectonics and paleogeographic conditions and the space-time migration law of rich coal belts, as well as the later deformation and transformation of coal measures, that is, structural coal control. The study of coal metamorphism law and the determination of major metamorphism types, as well as the study of coal rock, coal quality and some special properties of sedimentary characteristics and environmental indicators are also important geological basis for coal resource prediction. In short, comprehensive research on coal-bearing construction, coal-stage deformation and coal metamorphism provides a powerful geological basis for coal resource prediction. The chapters in the previous chapter describe the basic aspects of the above aspects.
The practice basis for coal resource forecasting is the existing exploration and development work in the forecast area and its periphery (peripheral or deep). It is a traditional practice of coalfield prediction to infer unknown (predicted zone) from known (exploration and development zones) based on the geological background (based on coal). The application of integrated geophysical and remote sensing geological achievements in the past decade has become an important means to detect the structural form of coal-bearing basins and to discover hidden coal fields, and to provide a more comprehensive prediction basis than the second coal field prediction.
Due to the different geological conditions and resource conditions of each province (district), different methods are adopted according to the actual situation when calculating the predicted coal resource quantity.
(1) The conditions of coal accumulation are good, the stability of coal seam stability is relatively stable, the later stage transformation is weak, the geological structure is simple, the coal-bearing stratum is basically continuous, and the coal resource occurrence area with higher credibility is predicted, and the arithmetic average block segment is adopted. law. The provinces (regions) in the North China Coal-producing Area, Xinjiang in the Northwest Coal-producing Area, and Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan in the South China Coal-producing Area use this method.
(2) The conditions of coal accumulation are generally stable, the coal seam is relatively stable-unstable, the later reform is more intense, the geological structure is medium, the distribution of coal-bearing strata is discontinuous, and the prediction area with poor prediction credibility is added depending on the geological conditions. The reliability correction coefficient is 0.8~0.5. In areas with poor coal accumulation conditions, unstable coal seams and complex geological structures, the correction factor is 0.5 to 0.4. The measurement parameters of the predicted resource amount are extrapolated from the average of the known parameters when the prediction area is adjacent to the surveyed area and the development area; and the new area widely covered by the new world is interpreted and controlled according to ground geophysical exploration. Presumption or inference.
(3) In some provinces (regions) in South China, Southeast Coast, and Central South, there are also direct storage values ​​of reserves/resource abundance parameters (ie, reserves/resources per unit area of ​​coal-bearing strata) The predicted resource amount is calculated by the prediction area and the reliability coefficient.
Forecast resource Q = βxExs
In the formula, the β prediction confidence coefficient (0.8~0.4), the E known area reserve/resource abundance (104t/km2), and the s prediction coal area (km2).
(4) The early Cretaceous basin group in the Erlian coal-bearing area of ​​Inner Mongolia has a low degree of geological work, and the coal-producing parameter information (coal-bearing area and coal-bearing property) is small. The calculation of the predicted resource amount in this area is based on the known Unknown regression analogy mathematical model.
The method firstly analyzes the weights of six factors including the coal-bearing degree controlled by the coal-bearing zone, the structural location, the basin structure type, the thickness of the coal-bearing stratum, the basement depth and the coal seeing in the borehole. Importance), multiplied by the scores corresponding to different classification criteria (1.0, 0.5, 0, respectively, indicating good, medium, and poor), to obtain the single factor coal advantage and the combination of the six factors Coal advantage (x). Take the comprehensive coal-rich favorableness of the known coal-bearing basin with its resource abundance--the coal-bearing rate (y) (104t/km2), and perform the statistical regression calculation after natural logarithm conversion to obtain the regression equation y= ! + bx (13 known areas in the second coal-bearing zone are a = 2.189, b = 5.701). Therefore, the 53 kinds of other coal-producing coal-bearing basins (regions), which are defined by regional adjustment, ground geophysical exploration, and rare control drilling, will be used to calculate the comprehensive coal-consolidation advantage x. The coal content rate y is obtained according to the regression equation y = a / bx. The multiplication value of the coal-bearing area S and the coal-bearing rate y of the coal-bearing basin (district) is predicted to be the predicted resource amount of the prediction area.
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