The price of domestic titanium dioxide has fallen below the cost line. Currently, the rutile-type ton price is in the range of 9500 to 10500 yuan, and the anatase type is in the range of 8300 to 9300 yuan. At present, there are disagreements regarding the industry's views as to whether the market is bottoming out. However, most people think that the industry really needs to eliminate some of its production capacity by going out of low prices.
The recent rutile titanium dioxide mainstream offer in the 9500 ~ 10500 yuan (t price, the same below), anatase titanium dioxide mainstream offer in the 8300 ~ 9300 yuan, has fallen below the lowest price in recent years, fell below the cost line. The start-up enthusiasm of production enterprises is not high, and it is difficult for some companies to stop production. Regarding the outlook for titanium dioxide, there are disagreements among the industry, and some people think that it is now at the bottom. There are also views that there will be some downside during the year, and there may be even more extreme low prices, while not excluding minor adjustments. However, most people think that the industry is really out of the low-cost need to eliminate some of the outgoing capacity.
Some people in the industry are optimistic about the market in the next year. They believe that although the current price of titanium dioxide continues to decline, the operating rate is also running low, and inventory has fallen back to normal levels. Demand growth will accelerate in the next few years, and the recovery of the titanium dioxide market may not be far behind. China Titanium Dioxide Network analysts believe that although the market is cold, there is still a certain amount of rigid demand, and the short-term market conditions can maintain the overall stable state of the enterprise. Thomas Casey, chairman and CEO of Tenova, stated that 2015 is a transitional year for the titanium dioxide business, but the industry has responded to this dilemma much faster than before and adaptability has improved.
Hassan Ahmed recently released a research report that the current global inventory of titanium dioxide manufacturers is rapidly approaching normal levels, and the customer's inventory may have dropped below normal levels, which means that the time to rebuild the inventory soon arrived. Inventory at or below the normal level, the price of raw ore tends to stabilize and the spot price of titanium dioxide rises. These three factors mean that the price of titanium dioxide will become normal next year.
He Mingchuan, general manager of Guangdong Yunfu Titanium Industry Co., Ltd., told reporters that even though their company is trying to do a full article in the industry chain, it is still difficult to resist the impact of low market prices. At present, the company is only in the state of maintaining low profits. He believes that as the country's macroeconomic policy shifts to an era of deep adjustment, the titanium dioxide market will continue to operate at a low price for a period of time. It is expected that there will be some improvement in market demand in 2017, and anyone who can hold on to the end will be the king.
There are also some industry experts who are not so optimistic. Bi Sheng, director of the Titanium Divider Center of the National Chemical Industry Productivity Promotion Center, said that the current economic environment is not good, and the titanium dioxide industry can no longer be compared with the era of fiery red, due to the limited increase in market capacity, and the increase in production capacity in previous years Constant release, the market is like worse. The current actual product transaction price is lower than the cost of most production companies, and the future outlook cannot be expressed with optimism. Whether it is the reorganization of the industry, mergers and acquisitions, or the addition of new chlorination projects, it will not be able to change the current dilemma in the short term. He believes that titanium dioxide production capacity will continue to increase in the next two to three years. If the market situation does not improve fundamentally, the industry structure will be further turbulent. The result will only be accelerated SMEs, especially 50,000 tons/year. The following corporate role transitions have even disappeared. The industry is really out of the low-cost need to eliminate some of the outgoing capacity, or this downward shock will continue to exist for a long time.
Tang Zhenning, the national titanium dioxide industry expert group, also believes that the sluggish economy will continue for several years. The entire industry must have long-term plans because the apparent consumption of nearly 90% of China's titanium dioxide market is at home, and the export volume is relatively small. In previous years, our exports had a price advantage, and now the cost is almost the same as the international one, and the price advantage is no longer. The domestic demand is mainly concentrated in coatings, plastics, paper, ink and other fields. Consumption accounts for more than 95% of the total, of which, downstream of coatings, such as steel and real estate, are declining, which in turn leads to a decline in the use of coatings and thus affects the titanium dioxide market. In recent years, due to the increase in the contribution of the tertiary industry to GDP, the growth rate of the primary and secondary industries has slowed, which has also directly affected the consumption of the titanium dioxide market.
Due to the inability of terminal demand, especially the lack of demand in the chemical industry, the demand for Chinese civil titanium materials has dropped significantly. Relevant statistics show that the demand for titanium in China’s civil fields has fallen by more than 20% from the previous two years. Although there is an increase in demand for aerospace and marine vessels and other industries, some high-end product markets are still not under the control of Chinese companies, but instead fall into the pockets of foreign companies.
The good news in the international market was bleak. The export volume of titanium dioxide decreased as a whole. The export market was also severe. The international giants frequently cut prices and the export of domestic products was not a small obstacle. According to statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to September this year, due to the slowdown of global economic growth and other factors, the export volume of titanium dioxide decreased by 4.9% year-on-year.
In the face of sluggish global demand and brutal competition, some manufacturers’ foreign trade pressures have gradually shifted to domestic sales, and they have not taken the bottom line or become normal. The possibility of the occurrence of extreme prices of rutile 9,000 yuan and anatase 8,000 yuan or less cannot be completely ruled out. Hospitality analysts believe that the market trend of titanium dioxide is still the following behavior, may be slightly turbulent adjustment, but overall there will be no room for upward, downside shocks will be in the foreseeable future.
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