On October 14, the Ministry of Health announced the "Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)". We believe that in the first year of reform, the growth rate of drug use in hospitals will drop to an increase rate of 8% to 10%, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry may drop to 15% to 18%, and it will return to the hospital 15% to 18% after the second year. Industry 20% to 25% growth rate.
Short-term medical reforms have pressure on the industry. Relatively speaking, the advantage of Chinese medicine is even more pronounced. Due to the high homogeneity, the average price of western medicine products will drop significantly.
Medical reform mainly guarantees basic medical care. We believe that the promotion may be greater in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medications. The main reasons are:
(1) Population factors: 15% of the elderly in China account for 30% of the patient's structure and 50% of drug consumption. The main diseases of the elderly population are cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
(2) Factors of chronic diseases: Medical reform countries will focus on basic medical institutions, and basic medical services will basically meet the services of chronic diseases and common diseases.
(3) Growth factors of consumer groups: In the rural market, the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased significantly.
(4) Price factors: The characteristics of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medications, especially Chinese medicines, are inexpensive and are in line with national policy requirements.
(5) Market factors: The phenomenon of excessive diagnosis and treatment and excessive consumption of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease drugs is relatively rare. On the other hand, some diseases, such as cancer, have excessive diagnosis and treatment, and factors such as excessive prices exist.
In the entire pharmaceutical structure, the correlation between cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs and the economy is relatively weak. This round of economic downturn has little effect on the consumption of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs. In the use of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicine, the advantages of Chinese medicine are very obvious. The use of traditional Chinese medicine is four times that of western medicine.
Among the listed companies of traditional Chinese medicines, several large varieties of Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, Mailuoning, and Suxiao Jiuxin Pills, etc., had growth rates of approximately 20%, 26%, and 30% for the period from January to September 2008, respectively, from 2004 to 2007. The growth rate of several products is less than 10%, mainly due to the increase in the number of consumer groups in the market and the expansion of medical insurance coverage. We predict that the growth trends of several large cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs will maintain 15% within 2-3 years. The above growth. We propose to increase the holding of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicine listed companies.
However, it should be noted that the implementation of medical reform is relatively large and the progress of reform will be gradual and will be slow.
Short-term medical reforms have pressure on the industry. Relatively speaking, the advantage of Chinese medicine is even more pronounced. Due to the high homogeneity, the average price of western medicine products will drop significantly.
Medical reform mainly guarantees basic medical care. We believe that the promotion may be greater in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medications. The main reasons are:
(1) Population factors: 15% of the elderly in China account for 30% of the patient's structure and 50% of drug consumption. The main diseases of the elderly population are cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.
(2) Factors of chronic diseases: Medical reform countries will focus on basic medical institutions, and basic medical services will basically meet the services of chronic diseases and common diseases.
(3) Growth factors of consumer groups: In the rural market, the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased significantly.
(4) Price factors: The characteristics of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medications, especially Chinese medicines, are inexpensive and are in line with national policy requirements.
(5) Market factors: The phenomenon of excessive diagnosis and treatment and excessive consumption of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease drugs is relatively rare. On the other hand, some diseases, such as cancer, have excessive diagnosis and treatment, and factors such as excessive prices exist.
In the entire pharmaceutical structure, the correlation between cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs and the economy is relatively weak. This round of economic downturn has little effect on the consumption of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs. In the use of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicine, the advantages of Chinese medicine are very obvious. The use of traditional Chinese medicine is four times that of western medicine.
Among the listed companies of traditional Chinese medicines, several large varieties of Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, Mailuoning, and Suxiao Jiuxin Pills, etc., had growth rates of approximately 20%, 26%, and 30% for the period from January to September 2008, respectively, from 2004 to 2007. The growth rate of several products is less than 10%, mainly due to the increase in the number of consumer groups in the market and the expansion of medical insurance coverage. We predict that the growth trends of several large cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs will maintain 15% within 2-3 years. The above growth. We propose to increase the holding of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular medicine listed companies.
However, it should be noted that the implementation of medical reform is relatively large and the progress of reform will be gradual and will be slow.
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